
Flickr image "Apartments Croatia" by Kavanjin Croatia Apartments
The more I experiment and try out different ways to achieve financial freedom, the more I learn about real concepts of financial management of my own money.
Moving from One Asset Class to Another
As you live within your means, you start to have savings. Most personal finance books advise you to keep some buffer or emergency funds enough for 3 to 6 months of expenses or income. The additional savings you should invest in fixed deposits, mutual funds, stocks and shares or other asset classes that fit your risk-reward profile.
Different asset classes have different liquidity. Liquidity refers to how easy it is to sell your assets and convert it to cash. Sounds simple but can be fraught with challenges as I found out now that I’m selling most of my equity portfolio into the currently rising market to move into property investment.
Why am I moving most of my net-worth out of equities at this point in time?
Reasons for Going Out of Equities
I have been selling some of my share holdings when they are at reasonably high prices relative to the troughs experienced during the crash in August to November 2008 time when subprime and the global financial crisis reared its ugly head.
I’m moving from a ratio of 80% equities : 20% cash to progressively almost 0% equities : 100% cash mainly because I’m now scouting for completed properties for investment. The downpayment for an investment property sucks up a lot of cash
1) Property market
I am relatively bullish about the property market in the long term, i.e. to invest for the next 15-20 years and even beyond. Singapore is still a place that has limited land and space for living and giving our Government’s continued approach of “grow GDP at all costs” plus lax foreign immigration policy, I see the drivers for residential property demand to be intact.
Property valuations rise and fall and sometimes also sharply depending on sentiment and overall economic outlook. But at the end of the day, with a long enough investment horizon and with sufficient holding power, it is a decent hedge against inflation and provides slightly more predictable cash flows if you are not into flipping for quick capital gains.
As I intend to rent out the investment property so that the rental income covers interest and part of the principal of the bank loan to finance the investment, the rental market has to be there for it to work.
Despite the current recessionary conditions, not all is gloom and doom, there are sectors that are doing all right and there is still rental demand for affordable private housing. The rental income from this will help offset the investment in property in that it is self-financing to a certain extent.
2) Volatility of Equities
Equities are volatile instruments. During the peak of the global subprime financial crisis. My equity portfolio plunged almost 50% after marking-to-market. It was pretty scary. I was fortunate that I have a stable job and had holding power to ride out the storm until the rally in the beginning of 2009.
Now, my equity portfolio is only showing slightly paper losses of $8k or so which I am prepared to accept as this is nothing compared to what I saw when things were at its worst in the stock market.
The dividend cash flows from equities are also quite volatile as companies can change their dividend policies to conserve cash during poor economic conditions. Thus, it’s more challenging to predict cash flows from investing in shares.
3) Low Interest Rates
The current environment has been helpful that it allowed me to get out of equities with my net worth mostly intact and allowing me to consider switching into another asset, i.e. investment property.
I’ve enquired around some banks and one is offering as low at 1.88% for the first 2 years (of course the caveat is that no matter what rate is being offered, banks can change it giving you 30 days’ notice). This is at around 80% financing for investment property.
Movable Net-Worth
Equities are relatively liquid as compared to property but I also learnt that you have to make sure your limits for selling is raised when you are trying to sell more equities than your normal trading limit imposed by your broker.
Fortunately, a phone-call to my broker solved that problem though I still had to “time” the market to extract maximum value out of my holdings as I move from equities to cash.
Going forward, I’ll be doing a very focussed search for suitable investment properties and I’ve actually got a very good idea of what I want and how much I’m prepared to go in.
I’m looking forward to a period of relatively illiquidity although from cash flow perspective it’s relatively netural as I project rental incomes to cover financing plus a chunk of the principal repayment of the bank loan used to finance this pending purchase.
Be well and prosper.
Foundation says:
Hi Panzer,
Wow I didn’t know that banks had the unilateral right to revise interest rates at their whims and fancy, this is certainly a large risk which we all have to factor in. Thanks for the information!
Wish you best of luck in your property scouting!
Foundation
musicwhiz says:
Hi Panzer,
I must admit I was a little surprised by your decision to move totally out of equities and into property investing. Perhaps it’s because my view of equities is that they are the best instrument to give long-term steady capital appreciation and high yield. For properties, I feel the media and probably people around us have hyped it up to make it have such an attractive feel. Some of the concerns I have are as follows:-
1) Property investing requires leverage, and this can take a heavy toll on cash flows should anything unforseen occur. Since the financing period is usually long (at least 15-20 years), anything can happen as the future is uncertain. Leverage can act as a double edged sword and in bad times, it can cut deep. What I am saying is to watch for the downside to hedge your risk, as a fall in home equity values can severely affect your ability to refinance.
2) Rise in bank interest rates – since rates are at historical lows, it makes sense for people to take up bank loans now with 3-year fixed rates to “lock-in” the low rate, and even if pegged to SIBOR it is still much lower than HDB concessionary rate of 2.6% p.a. However, one must factor in a rise in interest rates to as high as 4.5% to 5% in the event inflation rears its ugly head, and this may happen 5-8 years down the road.
3) Inability to find tenant – During bad times, and during transitions, inability to find a tenant can cause cash flow strain if one is using cash + CPF to finance his investment property.
4) Rental Yield – Rental yield is generally higher for HDB flats rather than condos. This is because the landlord has to pay for maintenance (usually $200-$300 per month for condos) as well as utilities, whereas for HDB this is much lower. Rental yields are about 3-4% for condos but for HDB I think it can go to as high as 5% (net).
5) Opportunity Cost – There is an opportunity cost of locking up your funds (by paying the downpayment) as equities will be suitably attractive for the next 3-5 years (personal view) and will provide a much higher yield than 4-5% if one chooses the right companies. Even blue chips right now are giving decent yield and we are not even considering the possible capital appreciation.
6) Property Cycle – It is not easy to time the property cycle, and most people who were expecting more of a crash are disappointed to see prices holding firm. Thus, prices may be rather demanding right now and I do detect elements of wanton speculation, so please be prudent in committing to a property as equity values may fall if there is over-speculation.
The bottom line is that I feel one should have some exposure to equities for long-term high yield (try REITS) and that investing in property is made to sound a lot more attractive than it really is.
Hope I didn’t offend with this post, just voicing my honest opinions !
Cheers.
createwealth8888 says:
If you may wish to read my thinking on property …
http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/search/label/Education%20-%20Property
Best wishes to your new investment strategy.
Panzer says:
Dear Musicwhiz
Thanks for your ideas. They are useful as property as an asset class has its advantages and disadvantages.
I’ve not yet gone in so I’m still looking around. Somehow, I feel lighter as I currently overweight in cash and underweight in equities.
But I’ll only plonk down the money if I find something suitable.
Time is on my side.
Be well and prosper.
Panzer says:
Createwealth8888
I’ve read the posts in the link, thanks for your advice.
Be well and prosper.
TS Ho says:
i think the most important thing about property is LOCATION,LOCATION and LOCATION. Make sure you get a property that can be rented out easily, even during bad time.
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createwealth8888 says:
How long you have been in the stock stock? Is this the first bear market you encountered?
createwealth8888 says:
How long you have been in the stock market? Is this the first bear market you encountered?
musicwhiz says:
Hi createwealth8888,
Just curious, how many bear markets have you been through yourself ? I am asking that here because I cannot post comments on your blog, and am curious.
For myself, this is my first major bear market, and it’s been a very rich learning experience I must admit !
Cheers,
Musicwhiz
BUBBLE BUBBLE says:
A classic case of leaping from one frying pan onto another.
Fortunes are made when you stay with a deflated bubble, not towards an inflated bubble.
I would suggest a more prudent approach to property investing if you are a newbie. The supply coming online is real and don’t let the media fool you.
panzer says:
Dear Bubble Bubble
Thanks for your words of caution.
Indeed, as many value investors have warned, profit is made at the price of purchase and not sales.
I am prepared to wait and in fact I’ve looked at a couple but think the prices they are asking for is over-valued given the economic situation.
Be well and prosper.
panzer says:
Dear TS Ho
Yes, LOCATION is critical.
So is affordability
Be well and prosper.
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