It’s that time of year again when Christmas decorations are being put up in malls all across Singapore. People look forward to a “white Christmas” although Singapore has no snow but lots of rain towards the end of the year.

Besides spending on Christmas gifts, feasts and other treats, a custom that Panzer likes to do is to take stock of his financial performance from being the fund manager of Panzer’s Net-worth cum daughter’s colleague tuition fund.

Analysis of the year gone past (so far)

The following chart shows how Panzer has performed in the months of 2009.

Generally, Panzer has been making steady realised gains from dividends (36%), capital gains/losses (59%) and blogging income (5%). July saw a big realised loss because Panzer cleared out many of his old holdings bought at high prices when he was young and ignorant. Now that Panzer is older and still ignorant, he has done a round of housekeeping to only buy quality stocks, in general blue chips with very solid business fundamentals.

August 2009 saw Panzer reap capital gains from sale of SPC to PetroChina resulting in a net gain even after realising his losses from sales of (crap) stocks he had mistakenly bought in his ignorance and bout of irrational exuberance.

Panzer’s Portfolio

The current older and still (slightly less) ignorant Panzer now manages his portfolio on at a level of 50:50 cash-equities ratio with investment limits on equities set to 75% of his investible net worth. On a steady state, Panzer should have 50% of his net worth in cash/cash equivalents allowing himself 25-30% core holdings in strong dividend yielding stocks while the remainder 20-50% is available for punts.

He has decided to temporarily put on hold his investment property plan in the light of possible asset bubble in the private residential segment and also because it’s easier to sleep at night holding onto to more cash than an illiquid asset such as investment property which typically yields only 3-5% after expenses. Panzer also wishes not to deal with the stuff that comes with being a landlord for the time being.

The recent announcements of more land supply for the mass market private residential segment also means there is less upside and more choices going forward. Panzer may still consider investment property if yields can sustain higher than 5% which would be challenging under present conditions.

Panzer’s holdings currently comprise: SPH, Singpost, Starhub, FSL, F&N and Singtel (CPF). He intends t0 hold them for LONG TERM but then LONG TERM can mean < 1 year if he feels like it because Panzer follows Temasek and GIC’s approach to investment.

Going forward

Panzer feels that this past year of investing (with lots of recent punting) has revealed to him a few things.

One – there are no rules to investing in the market.

Two – your guess is as good as mine.

Three – make sure you have sufficient cash for opportunity buys or to cushion your own mistakes.

Panzer wishes one and all a Merry Christmas.

Be well and prosper.

P.S. Panzer’s return on assets for calendar year 2009 is 6.71%. Panzer derives this figure by taking realised gains/losses and dividing it by investible net worth at lower of cost or market. It’s a simple thing, no need for super accuracy but good enough to know if I beat fixed deposits rates x 2.

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