Five Cents Ten Cents

Financial freedom, one realistic step at a time.

Panzer’s Equity Portfolio as at 20 Nov 2009


Flickr image AZO AUTOZONE 010209.png by Doc Trader

Flickr image AZO AUTOZONE 010209.png by Doc Trader

Panzer is no Warren Buffet, as some Channelnewsasia Market Talk forummer commented, there are a lot of Warren Bluffets around, people who make predictions about equity prices going up or down depending on whether they are taking a long or short view of the market.

What Panzer realises from investing his own monies since 2003 till date is that the returns on cash have been quite poor especially in the last 2 years or so.

Interest rates are so low that local banks are giving 0.1% or so for savings deposits. What this means is that your money when left in the bank is actually depreciating in purchasing power when inflation is minimally 1-2% annually. It was as high as 5-6% last year prior to the global financial crisis that wiped out much of equity values as well as destroyed economic activity throughout the entire world.

What Now Panzer?

So Panzer realises he must stay invested in the stock market but focus more on dividend yields rather than capital appreciation or quick punts for true growth in his investible portfolio.

Let’s examine Panzer’s holdings and why he is holding onto the stock as Panzer will be tempted to take profits but must keep focused on the long-term i.e. 20 years when the dividends and (potential) capital gains would be available for use for his daughter’s university fund.

Panzer’s Holdings (in no order of merit)

Long-term holdings – mainly for dividends and longer term capital appreciation

1. Singpost

2. Singapore Press Holdings

3. DBS

4. FSL

5. Starhub

6. F&N

7. Singtel

Short-term Trading

8. Keppel Corporation

If you realise from Panzer’s holdings, most of the companies are GLCs and blue-chips. So far, Panzer’s portfolio unrealised loss is around $4.6k level which is a vast improvement of -$70k at one stage. :-)

So far, the main clunker has been FSL bought when prices and valuations were high but we know now how the shipping industry has also been hit by the financial crisis.

A number of his buys are recent (i.e. within the last 3-6 months or so).

Panzer feels that this portfolio should not be too actively traded and can be earmarked for Panzer’s daughter college fund to mature sometime in 18-20 years.

In the meantime, Panzer knows that still the bulk of his savings will have to be derived from earned income not spent and he will continue to practice his professional arts in internal auditing.

How do you review your own portfolio and how do you decide to sell/hold/buy more?

Share with Panzer in the comments section.

Be well and prosper.


»crosslinked«

  • musicwhiz says:

    Hi Panzer,

    I review my portfolio on a monthly basis on my blog, and provide reasons for buy and sell decisions based on detailed analysis. It’s a learning process because when I look back at the analysis I did in 2007 for instance, it looks so shallow and I can see so many things which I missed out, overlooked or fail to take into proper consideration. That’s why I think it’s a good idea to blog about (or at least make a personal diary of) all your investment decisions, be they buy or sell. At least it forms a platform which you can use to learn from your mistakes and improve your performance over time. Just a suggestion from me.

    As to how I decide to buy or sell more, it’s based on monitoring and analysis of the business model, fundamentals and updates from the company. There is a lot of number crunching, thinking, analyzing, dissecting and contemplation which goes into every single one of my investments. Decisions are not made lightly, but once made they are made with conviction and confidence. I take mistakes not as setbacks, but as stepping stones to my eventual goal of success in earning a decent long-term return from the stock market.

    Thus far, I have kept to my goal of not losing money in equities as I have made capital preservation my central motto in investments. I encourage everyone else to do the same too. Do NOT go for quick gains, be slow yet steady and you will win the race eventually.

    Cheers,
    Musicwhiz

    20/11/2009 at 5:36 pm
  • Panzer says:

    Hi Musicwhiz

    Thanks for sharing your approach to investment portfolio review. I’m also tracking my gains/losses from trading as well as “long-term” investing via dividends, capital gains(losses) and interest from deploying my investible capital.

    Keeping accurate records tells one exactly where one has gone wrong and right in investment decisions. ;-)

    Agree with you that slow and steady is good for the race but it’s fun to punt now and then within one’s means.

    Be well and prosper.
    .-= Panzer´s last blog ..Finatiq Cash Investment Account Interest Rates Decline to 0.125% p.a. =-.

    23/11/2009 at 4:28 pm
  • Ming says:

    I read the opening lines to your post with a bit of amusement
    “…there are a lot of Warren Bluffets around, people who make predictions about equity prices going up or down depending on …”

    I serendipitously came across a youtube video of BBC interviewing Mr Buffett. You can search-engine its title “The World’s Greatest Money Maker: Evan Davis meets Warren Buffett”

    I mention this because what Musicwhiz and you agreed on investing is also very much of what ‘the guru’ advocated on the BBC interview.

    Invest based on:
    How much you can understand the business (can you explain it to your mother?)
    Independent thinking (he is constantly at odds with Wall St)
    Fundamentals of the business (like Coca-Cola)
    Long-term

    I don’t think he’s a huge fan of equities. Then again I could be wrong. He’s a Black Swan himself, as the video shows in the closing minutes.

    (at least thats what I think I remember from the video)

    11/12/2009 at 1:56 am
  • panzer says:

    Hi Ming

    One of the things that Buffet advocates is investing in share of quality businesses at the right price. The issue of quality businesses may not be too difficult in the sense that in SGX context, most of the GLC/blue-chips with monopolies or strong market positions are known. The trick is to determine what is the “right” price.

    With hindsight, we know that picking up the likes of local banks (OCBC, UOB or DBS) during height of subprime in March 2009 would have been the “best” or “right” time. But it’s with hindsight. I did pick up some e.g. 1 lot of UOB at $9.40 and if I had held it until now would have made $10k profit just on 1 lot. But then, I was in/out of UOB as the run-up was so fast that the cautious part of me realised some gains. I still made some money but deviated from my main reason for picking it up at $9.40, i.e. from long-term value investing into short-term punter :-P

    Investing theory is there for everyone to know. The difficulty is to hold true to your course, have holding power to think long-term. The other difficulty is to decide to buy when prices are “cheap” relative to the quality and value of the company. In that regard, I still believe there is some “timing” that needs to be done for equities.

    Be well and prosper.

    11/12/2009 at 8:41 am
  • skeptic says:

    You should expand out to non-Singapore blue chips and bonds. Because buying equities in one market is akin to putting everything in one basket. There is some risk in currency fluctuation though.
    .-= skeptic´s last blog ..Church Smackdown. =-.

    27/12/2009 at 5:58 pm
  • panzer says:

    Hi skeptic

    Currency risks are something that I don’t want to spend too much time managing for my equity investments. So far, most of my cash flow needs are denominated in SGD so playing mostly in SGD is my style. I actually do have foreign currency fixed deposits but it’s a relatively small portion of my portfolio. :-)

    Be well and prosper.

    28/12/2009 at 8:46 am

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

CommentLuv badge