Five Cents Ten Cents

Financial freedom, one realistic step at a time.

Can You Sleep Well During This Market Upheaval?


Sleeping cat
I was chatting with some of the nice at people LP’s Bully The Bear blog and was asking some of the people if they can sleep well at night with the market positions they have taken on SGX on the stocks that they are investing.

It’s an interesting question because when I went through the 2008 crisis, I went through a lot of personal upheavals myself even as the value of my stock portfolio gyrated as violently as a ship caught in a storm of a hurricane. That experience helped me understand more about this whole idea of asset allocation of one’s portfolio and managing one’s cash.

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Reading Financial Non-Fiction: Liar’s Poker


Liar's Poker

One of the best things I get out of reading financial non-fiction is to experience the world through another practitioner’s eyes. In the case of the non-fiction financial book “Liar’s Poker” by Michael Lewis, it allows me to get into the world of investment banking without actually ever stepping into the world of investing banking.

Experiencing Alternate Universes Through Books

The great thing about reading real-life personal stories about people in different industries is that you get to live their life (a little) through their accounts of what they felt, thought and went through in their book. In the case of “Liar’s Poker”, Michael Lewis shares the semi-autobiographical account of his days at Salomon Brothers, a US Wall-Street investment bank that was famous in the 80s and 9os in being a bonds salesman in the bank and the development of the mortgage bond trading market.

Unlike a textbook on bond trading or investment banking, “Liar’s Poker” takes you into the world through the eyes of the various key players in the market then. Interesting personalities such as Michael Milken (junk bond king) and others such as Salomon Brothers Chairman John Gutfreund, traders John Meriwether and Lewis Raineri.

What I got out of “Liar’s Poker”

I learnt more about the way investment banks operate even though this was in the 80s. The way the investment banks risked capital to make fortunes for bank’s owners and shareholders by trading in various investments especially during the mortage bond market explosion is reminiscent of how the global banking system imploded from the sub-prime situation. The 80s saw the US Savings and Loans (or Thrifts) go bankrupt as they had to pay high savings rates for deposits and yet could issue loans that covered those rates leading them to invest in higher yielding but ultimately riskier mortgage bonds or bonds securitised using mortgages as the underlying assets.

The type of financial alchemy that saw the Collateralised Debt Obligations and Mortgage Backed Securities being the instruments of mass (financial) destruction during the subprime crisis in the 2007-2009 period is basically an episode where history repeats itself. It is uncanny how the situation described by Michael Lewis who published the book in 1989 is so similar to what we see in the global financial crisis.

I truly believe that those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.

The key lesson I learnt is “caveat emptor” or let the buyer beware. You need to understand what you’re buying or selling i.e. know how to value an asset in order to get a good price when you buy or sell. If not, you’re totally screwed up the market counter-party who is on the other side of the transaction. While Lewis shared the humorous part of what investment bankers did to “jam” or sell securities to clients, he also shared the ugly part about how sometimes (or many times) the client is in fact being sold securities that the investment bank wants to get rid of.

It’s truly a brutal world out there and you look out for yourself or be eaten alive.

What books have you read that helped you to have fun and at the same time profit from it?

Share with Panzer in the comments section.

Be well and prosper.

Panzer’s Portfolio Update (12 May 2011)


5c10c_cash_equities_12May2011

It’s been quite a while since I last updated my portfolio. This pie chart shows what is my cash/equities position as at 12 May 2011. As you can see, I’m still fairly conservative at this point in time. Partly because 46% of my my investible savings is in cash as it backs up the outstanding mortgage loan that I still have for my home. I.e. I am still carrying on with the loan until the three year lock-in is over as I don’t want to pay back the legal subsidy etc. and my current mortgage package allows offset interest so my interest cost is quite low each month.

My current equities holdings are in the following stocks, the % in brackets denote % of my investible assets portfolio (at lower of cost/market). Note that the sum of % does not equal to 54% equities due to my lower of cost/market conservative mark-to-market practice in valuing my portfolio:

  1. Singtel (1%)
  2. DBS (10%)
  3. First Ship Leasing (1%)
  4. SPH (22%)
  5. Singpost (3%)
  6. UOB (13%)

This is also one way for me to use my CPF monies to pay for the housing loan.

In terms of investment returns so far, I’ve done much less active trading and investment income from capital gains, dividends, interest and some blogging income gives me a return of 1.48% which doesn’t beat inflation but beats fixed deposits returns. As my dividends are not full-year, it’s likely that my investment returns should be able to be above 2% which still doesn’t beat inflation of 5% but is better than fixed deposits without taking undue risks.

Do you keep track of your own investment returns?

How has the first half of 2011 been for your in terms of investment returns?

Share with Panzer in the comments section.

Be well and prosper.

Alternative Realities and Possibilities in Financial Freedom


Flickr image by Tiny_packagesOne of the critical things that I’ve learnt during my journey toward financial freedom is to be open to new realities and possibilities towards financial freedom.

When I first started out this journey, I was overly focussed on savings and investment and trying to grow my investment nest egg to a large enough size to live off the passive income. A lot of this was influenced by Robert Kiyosaki’s “Rich Dad, Poor Dad.” It is not a bad objective, but the uncertainties come with the investment returns that one can obtain from investments and also the risk of losing all your capital if you bet on the wrong instruments. Continue reading

The 80-20 Principle by Richard Koch


Wordle: 80-20

I finished reading the book and it was useful to revisit the concept of 80:20 or the pareto principle in our own lives.

If you haven’t already heard of the pareto principle, Wikipedia explains to you the background. Pareto found the 20% of the population in Italy owned 80% of the land. It is very similar in income distribution, 20% of the people tend to own 80% of the wealth.

Why is the pareto principle applicable to our lives?

Seeing the World with 80-20 Lenses

I’d like to think that the 80-20 principle is a type of lens that we can use to look at our own lives. In our quest towards financial freedom, what is the 20% of things that we do that lead to the 80% of results. At work, what is the 20% of tasks, activities and priorities that get us the 80% of results in terms of hitting outcomes and objectives? In our personal lives, what is the 20% of key conversations and communication that lead to 80% of satisfaction in our personal relationships?

In my current job, I realise that writing useful and succinct reports that covered the key risks and audit observations was key to being effective in my job. Thus, I spend a lot of effort making sure that our reports are well worded, grammatically correct and do many rounds of spell checks using the Word software. At the end of the day, the quality of the reports generated by my team is what stakeholders would read and assess on our effectiveness.

In investing, I realise that the strategy of patiently monitoring blue chips and accumulating them during periods of uncertainty, such as the recent Japanese earthquake and nuclear fears is one that will pay dividends over the next 10-20 years which is the time horizon that I intend to hold on to these blue chips.

At the same time, I am investing in work that prepares me to be an independent director of a listed company in future, by actively participating in the business and risk decisions of the organisation that I am currently a board member.

Using Mental Models and Frameworks

The more I read, the more I realise reading empowers us with more mental models to look at things. Improvement only comes when we apply skills, insights and intelligence to real world issues for progress using the appropriate mental models. The models themselves do not hold the answer, but the insights and understanding obtained by using those models on the data and transactions help us make suggestions that improve how things are being done currently.

The 80-20 principle is an useful mental model to use in our walk towards financial freedom. What other models do you use in your journey towards financial freedom?

Share with Panzer in the comments section.

Be well and prosper.